The long road to recovery
American and world investors are heaving a sigh of relief at this morning's strong stock market recovery. After a sickening 42% drop from last year's market peak, the Dow Jones this morning surged back over 9,000.It is not over yet. Just last Friday, the Dow swung an unprecedented one thousand points in a single day's trading. There will be more bad news as the credit crisis continues to ripple through the economy with mounting job losses and bankruptcies. But for now panic has abated and free fall in the markets has been halted.
This pause should give an opportunity not only to assess what went wrong, but to think clearly about how to move forward. "Rescuing" an economy in crisis is different from curing an economy of unsustainable practices. We spent too much on the wrong things and we will be paying for it for a long time. The solution is not to artificially reflate the bubble with borrowed taxpayer money, but to build a new foundation under our nation's economy.
No where does this make more sense than in the real estate market where this crisis originated. Not only did unscrupulous banks and brokers lend to people who couldn't afford the loans, banks and institutional investors bankrolled unsustainable sprawl development that has cratered, virtually freezing new housing development, especially here in California.
New urbanist author and Oceanside city planner Peter Katz has a thoughtful blog column on the subject here. He lays out a familiar critique of the folly of endless tracts of new homes at the far fringe of metropolitan areas, subsidized by massive public investment, especially in highway construction. He raises the provocative question of whether this pervasive "market failure" doesn't call for tougher national standards to protect the taxpayers who are paying for the $700 billion plus "bail out":
"Maybe it’s time, even as the billions of bailout dollars flow, for official Washington to get tough. It’s emerging as lender of last resort, asset manager for the wounded American taxpayer, assuming the responsibility for thousands of toxic mortgages on property that more diligent local planners might never have allowed to be built. So why could Washington not advocate — maybe even require as a price for the potential subsidies and loan insurance it may offer — compliance with planning rules aimed at promoting more economically robust, resource-efficient communities?"
Neither of the presidential candidates has addressed the underlying unsustainability of suburban sprawl. But any comprehensive effort to restore our economy must ask the question: are we going to invest massive taxpayer subsidies in propping up an unsustainable pattern of growth or are we going to direct those subsidies toward a more sustainable future.
Building houses no one can afford out where driving fuels our dependence on foreign oil, aggravates global warming and undermines the health of American children and families is not sustainable. Before we get back to lending money in the real estate markets, public policy must change to ensure that money is invested in a better -- and more prosperous -- future.





4 Comments:
Rick I was in Ventura this weekend. I ate at Jonathan's on Main Street. Ventura is a lot like Sierra Madre and Claremont. As long as the vendors and the restaurants cater to local tastes they will maintain a safe revenue stream
When the Vendors on Main St. start to cater to tourist they become dependent on Tourist Dollars and then you town turns into Hollywood Blvd.
I say this because I want Ventura to remain a retreat a a good place to raise a family not some ex-urb of Los Angeles.
Thoughtful comments & informative refs. I believe Ventura is safe from over develoment.
Now to more wisely manage time and energy of Staff and Community Volunteers so that limited financial resources are optimized.
Dear Rick,
Your thoughtful writings, as always, hit the bulls-eye.
When those famous words were uttered, "Houstlon, we have a problem," the utterer and the listeners did not really know how big a problem there was.
For all of the present problem's huge ugliness, I think (like you) we are not facing the real problems...most of which people do not know or are ignoring.
Just one example: One just cannot run the national economy with such nice-sounding goals as home-ownership for everyone. Apparently, most of these toxic loans that comprise the problem have been made to folks who did not have the financial capability of taking on such huge burdens.
Meanwhile, office-holders who do not cater to these folks and others with similar situations, have a difficult time getting elected and/or reelected. So, these folks get bailed out to err again and the rest of us continue to carry heavy burdens.
Your comments help start us thinking in the right direction. I hope many more follow.
Sincerely,
Dick Stanford
Very valuable! Glad to have found your blog.
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