Oil at $200 a barrel
That's what Goldman Sachs' oil industry analyst is predicting.
The New York Times reports today that Arjun Murti, who was derided when he predicted a few years ago that oil would go to $100 a barrel, now says it will soon hit $200 a barrel -- and stay above at least $100 through 2011.
Consumers are already reeling at prices over $4 a gallon at the pump. But since worldwide demand continues to outstrip supply,unless the economy goes in the tank, it's going to cost even more to fill our tanks. What the Wall Street Journal calls "the world's premier energy monitor" is preparing a report "reflecting deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand."
There are lots of theories about the doubling of oil prices over the past year. Is it a temporary spike? Speculative bubble? Greedy conspiracy? Or the end of the world as we know it?
Take your pick. But one thing seems certain: not since the 1970's has America faced a more substantial challenge to the way we live.
Since the Vision process in 2000, Ventura has been moving toward a new model. Call it "smart growth." Call it "new urbanism." Or just call it "good planning." But the goal is to curb sprawl, reinvest in older urban areas and reduce our reliance on cars by making it more convenient and pleasant to walk, bike and use public transit.
How are we doing? Transit ridership is up. Some hardy bicyclists actually commute to work on two wheels. The sidewalks in Downtown and the Westside are often crowded.
But in other ways, our landscape has not changed nearly as quickly or as much as the price of gas. Outside the primarily commercial core of downtown and the older Westside neighborhoods, Ventura is still primarily a suburban town dependent on cars to get around.
We've made a symbolic gesture in our house. Wednesdays my three kids and I now walk instead of drive to school and work. We pick up two of my kids classmates along the way. It's about a mile -- and we could take the bus down Main. But I like the exercise and my kids still have a stigma about public transit, even though they've used it when we travel.
There are now five Toyota Pruis' on our block in Midtown (two are ours.) But the "infill" projects approved in Downtown and Midtown in recent years are stalled because of the economy. Whether loved or hated by the neighbors, they aren't getting built. It's hard to measure whether "smart growth" will make a difference if we aren't having any growth at all.
Will life ever return to normal? If by normal we mean gas at $2 a gallon, the answer is clearly "no." Can we continue to live suburban lifestyles with gas at $4 a gallon -- and up? That remains to be seen.
The New York Times reports today that Arjun Murti, who was derided when he predicted a few years ago that oil would go to $100 a barrel, now says it will soon hit $200 a barrel -- and stay above at least $100 through 2011.
Consumers are already reeling at prices over $4 a gallon at the pump. But since worldwide demand continues to outstrip supply,unless the economy goes in the tank, it's going to cost even more to fill our tanks. What the Wall Street Journal calls "the world's premier energy monitor" is preparing a report "reflecting deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand."
There are lots of theories about the doubling of oil prices over the past year. Is it a temporary spike? Speculative bubble? Greedy conspiracy? Or the end of the world as we know it?
Take your pick. But one thing seems certain: not since the 1970's has America faced a more substantial challenge to the way we live.
Since the Vision process in 2000, Ventura has been moving toward a new model. Call it "smart growth." Call it "new urbanism." Or just call it "good planning." But the goal is to curb sprawl, reinvest in older urban areas and reduce our reliance on cars by making it more convenient and pleasant to walk, bike and use public transit.
How are we doing? Transit ridership is up. Some hardy bicyclists actually commute to work on two wheels. The sidewalks in Downtown and the Westside are often crowded.
But in other ways, our landscape has not changed nearly as quickly or as much as the price of gas. Outside the primarily commercial core of downtown and the older Westside neighborhoods, Ventura is still primarily a suburban town dependent on cars to get around.
We've made a symbolic gesture in our house. Wednesdays my three kids and I now walk instead of drive to school and work. We pick up two of my kids classmates along the way. It's about a mile -- and we could take the bus down Main. But I like the exercise and my kids still have a stigma about public transit, even though they've used it when we travel.
There are now five Toyota Pruis' on our block in Midtown (two are ours.) But the "infill" projects approved in Downtown and Midtown in recent years are stalled because of the economy. Whether loved or hated by the neighbors, they aren't getting built. It's hard to measure whether "smart growth" will make a difference if we aren't having any growth at all.
Will life ever return to normal? If by normal we mean gas at $2 a gallon, the answer is clearly "no." Can we continue to live suburban lifestyles with gas at $4 a gallon -- and up? That remains to be seen.
posted by Rick Cole at
9:04 AM
10 Comments:
I agree in the US, we have enjoyed unrealistic prices for gasoline in comparison to Europe & Asia since the Oil Embargo of the 80's. I applaud 1) the push for modernization and technology to make more efficient advances for our existing gasoline transportation infrastructure and 2) this new reality providing Americans (and citizens in Ventura) opportunities for alternative modes of transportation - from simple choices like bicycle commuting and carpooling, to demanding effective public transportation choices.
The area that concerns me is the apparent lack of economic opportunities or diverse industries in our city. If we can offer more local jobs in diverse industries, we have a greater chance to keep citizens close, allowing them to use public transit, bicycle commuting and other choices.
I know I'm stating the obvious to you, and I have read your posts about this topic, but I don't see much evidence of progress from the city council, the local or state economic development boards or local entrepreneurs. We as citizens, tax payers and a community have a lot at stake and I’d like to see more positive action or progress.
The global scientific consensus is that to stabilize the climate, we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% of 1990 levels by the year 2050. The State of California has signed up to that goal as well. Let that sink in a little - an 80% reduction means we live on 20% of the emissions. Some of our emissions cannot be reduced, especially those associated with industrial processes. Cement manufacturing is inherently going to generate Greenhouse Gases. Hence, to make up the required reduction the electric grid has to be powered by carbon free renewable energy and fossil fuels will be have to be phased out from transportation.
We are talking about dramatic changes required. These minor inconveniences we are experiencing now with $4 per gallon gasoline is really nothing to be too concerned about. We have more dramatic lifestyle changes required to deal with climate change and the Peak Oil phenomenon. Simple living will have to be a part of the solution.
I am an optimist that if we put our heads together, we can come out actually better off after making this transition. If we cut our defense budget dramatically and use those funds to help implement these changes, we'll be well on our way to finding the solutions.
With out to much strain on the old Brain it doesn't take a genuis to know that the reason the price for oil and gas is rapidly approaching the price of gold is simply because the voters of California and other states told the "Big Oil Companies" (Of which Bush and his good ol' boys are major players.) That they could not drill for oil in the ecologial sensitive areas of our country. So now they are out to prove to us that we shouldn't have voted against them.
Rellis Smith
During a recent visit abroad, I took notice of the $8 per gallon Diesel prices. A lot, I thought, until I drove a Diesel minivan in Europe that got 45+ miles per gallon! (These numbers have been translated from Metric and the Euro). My Diesel truck gets 15-17 mpg on a good day. You do the math.
But, here in the states things are different. And, my family and I are following similar steps, as pointed out by Rick Cole. I now ride my bike to wolk at least once a week...hoping to go to 2-3 very soon. And, my wife walks to pick up our kids from school 2 days a week.
It's economics of small scale...my famliy simply cannot afford the fuel prices and have to somehow overcome it.
Blame Bush and Blair for high oil price Price was $10 barrel before Iraq war
Both lads above are very bad boys and should be tried for war crimes
such as invasion of Iraq which was illegal AS stated many time by Kofi Annan for secretary of UN
The previous poster should sue his school district for not providing him/her with the education he/she deserves.
Bush does not make policy, Congress does. The President is Commander and Chief of the Armed Forces and has some veto power...that's it. So, if you want to blame someone for this mess...blame the "Democrat" controled congress. Or, better yet...we should blame ourselves.
Blame is probably the least useful thing to worry about. There is only so much high grade petroleum in the ground. The world is using it at an accelerating rate and whether we are at a geological "peak" or simply a practical "peak" -- it is pretty clear that demand is rising faster than supply. Are producers and speculators taking advantage of this? Most probably. Have the leaders we elected failed to take action to address this challenge? Undoubtedly. But the bottom line is that when supply exceeds demand, the price goes up until the two balance. The supply of oil, of course, is not a textbook perfect example of the free market, but even through a glass darkly, we should shift our focus from blame to what we are going to do about the mismatch between demand and supply.
Rellis, your statement is "the reason the price for oil and gas is rapidly approaching the price of gold is simply because the voters of California and other states told the "Big Oil Companies" (Of which Bush and his good ol' boys are major players.) That they could not drill for oil in the ecologial sensitive areas of our country" is woefully inaccurate. You and Elton Gallegly seem to voice this repeatedly. Dr. Robert Hirsch mentioned at the Santa Barbara Peak Oil conference on May 29 something that is well known in the oil industry - 54 out of 65 oil producting countries have hit peak production and are on the downward slope. This has nothing whatsoever to do with environmentalists blocking access to drilling. Oil is finite.
You are a prolific writer so I am directing this comment to you because once you research the facts, you will be able to educate others. Just google peak oil in the internet. Then get the word out.
Anon said: "Bush does not make policy, Congress does. The President is Commander and Chief of the Armed Forces and has some veto power...that's it. So, if you want to blame someone for this mess...blame the "Democrat" controled congress."
Wow, talk about serious backpeddling. This is double speak revisionism at its best. Bush, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Wolfowitz, and Perle were just poor peaceloving sheep who were duped by a wicked warmongering Democratically controlled congress into the invasion and occupation of Iraq. Please reach deep in your pockets and give generously to these poor lads who have been led astray. They have be visciously led astray.... Sob, sob...
Peak oil demands radical changes in the way we live. Who dare suggest radical changes during these times of recession and voter apathy. I have no doubt that many people in power understand the issue. The will to be bold and come forward with solutions that will make the voters howl is what is lacking. The debate has to move beyond "driving a more fuel efficient SUV" or changing lightbulbs. Will it take an emergency at our doorstep to kick us into gear?
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