Peak oil
There is one indisputable fact about the supply of oil: there is a finite amount of it.
For the past century and a half, we've had ample supplies. Legend has it that oil was so plentiful here in Ventura that the pipe that filled U.S. Navy ships off the coast in World War II didn't even have a cap -- it just flowed into the ocean when it wasn't fueling the fleet.
Now with gas prices at all-time record highs, Americans are having to pay attention to something we've long taken for granted for everything from the fuel we put in our cars to the bristles in our toothbrushes and the fertilizer we put on our lawns.
Is the world facing "peak oil" -- the upper limit of worldwide production?
Petroleum Geologist Jeffrey Brown has studied the issue closely. "The lifeblood of the world industrial economy is draining away in front of our eyes," he warns. "The only question is how fast the patient is bleeding to death."
Brown brings his charts and graphs to UC Santa Barbara's Bren School of Environmental Science and Management next week in a public lecture on Tuesday, April 10 at 7 PM:
He's not alone. In an eye-catching front page story last fall, the Wall Street Journal declared:
"A growing number of oil-industry chieftains are endorsing an idea long deemed fringe: The world is approaching a practical limit to the number of barrels of crude oil that can be pumped every day."
Of course, there have been prophets of doom before. But there are two deeply troubling and inconvenient truths this time: first, the world is now retracing the same arc of declining production following declining discovery of new reserves that has steadily diminished American oil production and forced us to import 65% of the oil we use -- and second, worldwide demand for oil is accelerating. This is a collision course that puts in jeopardy our way of life.
If it was our sand, we'd have the luxury of burying our head in it. But the largest reserves of oil are underneath places where we are not particularly beloved: Russia, Iran, Venezuela etc.
Last year, a team from Cal Poly Pomona's 606 Studio approached the City to study the impacts on Ventura's future. They produced a thick and colorful report called: "Transforming Urban Environments for a Post-Peak Oil Future." It's available on the City's website at:
We've only begun to think about the long-term implications of the end of cheap oil -- and the impact on our planet of burning carbon at an accelerating rate. But we can't afford not to, according to a new study by the Urban Land Institute. Called "Growing Cooler," it makes a case for the kind of smart growth policies embraced by our community in the 2005 General Plan. Only by curbing sprawl and creating a more compact, mixed-use future can we not only live in balance with nature, but also pursue a prosperous future. For more on the study, see:
It all can be overwhelming. But it doesn't have to be. We are not victims. In our home towns, in our consumer choices and because of our democratic freedoms, we can tackle a future without cheap oil. As Robert Kennedy said many years ago:
"Our future may lie beyond our vision, but it is not completely beyond our control. It is the shaping impulse of America that neither fate nor nature nor the irresistible tides of history, but the work of our own hands, matched to reason and principle, that will determine our destiny. There is pride in that, even arrogance, but there is also experience and truth. In any event, it is the only way we can live."
posted by Rick Cole at
11:57 AM
3 Comments:
Rick, you are certainly not an oil expert. The largest oil reserves in the world right now are off the coasts of the US and on the North Slope. Your Democrat friends in Congress are opposed to drilling in either, but the rest of the world's oil rigs, including China, are doing so [ the Gulf Coast ]. Suggest you obtain a revised reading list
I am a small business owner in Ventura who is trying to stay in business, compeating with big corperations and a strugling economy. Yesterday I receive a bill from the city for $500 for hanging a sign outside by business for 4 days. That sign that is now removed, brought me in business, thanks. You should be ashamed of your self allowing such petty sign regulations. Help us, don't hurt us.
It’s good to see this issue, which is of great importance to everyone, being publicized. Peak oil is already upon us as only 1 barrel of oil is discovered to replenish reserves for every 3 being extracted out of the ground. For the naysayers, just look for the Chevron advertisements warning of peak oil that are widely published. This is not a US issue only, it’s a global issue. Many oil producing countries have past their peak production and are on their way down the other side of the curve. The quicker we get on board to adapt to this change the better. There is so much that can be done to stretch out our resources in the short term and substitute in the longer term.
Firstly, why do we move in huge automobiles when small compact energy efficient vehicles would do? This is true for the government as well. Right-sizing the public fleets would help. Even policemen now use bicycles on patrol so this is a very viable alternative office workers and tradesmen.
Secondly, the compact developments you mentioned are critical. Infill, vibrant shared public spaces, fee-only parking and elimination of minimum parking requirements, and public transport stand out.
Finally, we need plug-in hybrids and electric cars that are fed by renewable sources of electricity. The Scientific American has a very compelling article on a solar PV future that could be deployed to fulfill our nation’s electricity needs. You can google it and read the entire proposal. It’s visionary but completely do-able if we get the mix right. The transformation is going to happen, it’s only a question if we get on board and make this transition less chaotic. We’ll never get everyone on board – there are still many who think the world is 6,000 years old or that the Apollo mission was staged in a Hollywood set. We can’t wait for the stragglers; we’ve got to get on with it. Thanks for starting the education process.
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