Traffic and the future

The LA Times story on anti-traffic initiatives in Oxnard and Thousand Oaks has drawn statewide attention:

http://californiacitynews.typepad.com/ californiacitynewsorg/2007/12/taking-the-init.html

Of course, Californians all hate traffic. But is shutting down development within five miles of a congested intersection the best -- or only answer?

In Ventura, we're working on a whole range of solutions -- it's called a Mobility Plan and it's just getting under way to reduce congestion and make public transit, walking and biking more attractive and safer in our community.

Two recent publications have highlighted the growing national trend toward "walkable communities." One, by the Brookings Institution, rates major metro areas for their "walkability" and claims that diverse walkable urban communities are popping up in and around major metropolitan areas like D.C., Denver, and even car-dominated cities like Los Angeles and Detroit.

Another is a new book by one of America's most prophetic writers about our changing landscape, Chris Leinberger. He says that this new trend is being driven by demand from Gen Xers, empty nesters, never nesters and singles looking for neighborhoods where cars are not absolutely essential-as opposed to what Leinberger refers to as "drivable sub- urban" developments characteristic of the American landscape since the 1950s.

"As demographic trends and consumer preferences take hold, the nearby suburbs of many major cities are changing to meet the pent up demand for this new way of life," Leinberger says. "The American Dream, as laid out on the ground, is changing."

Leinberger points to reactions all across the nation to the unpopularity of suburban growth that has resulted in geometric increases in land consumption compared to population growth, a host of social ills, long commutes, and increasing rates of obesity, asthma and accidental deaths and injuries from over-reliance on car and truck transportation -- not to mention increasing our dependence on oil from unstable and/or hostile nations and contributing to global warming.

Leinberger also says the improved quality of life in walkable areas draws the kind of educated workforce that drives job creation in knowledge-based sectors such as science and media that drive local economies. He believes that growing demand for walkable urbanism has resulted in a large gap between the current limited supply and much larger pent-up demand, boosting per square foot premiums for walkable urban residential, office and retail space from 40% to 200% of the comparable drivable sub-urban product in the same market.

Recent research in selected metropolitan areas shows that 30% to 40% of households want to live in walkable urban communities, but only 5% to 20% of the housing supply is walkable urban. Because of the relatively small amount of new supply that is added each year to the built environment, the supply of walkable urban housing, office and retail will not catch up to demand for a generation.

In Ventura, the General Plan vision of gradually replacing the vacant lots and strip centers along corridors like Thompson and Main is being pursued with the recent adoption of an Interim Code to ensure that new development fosters the kind of walkable streets that Leinberger advocates. In the long run, that may be a better safeguard for our future quality of life than initiatives that shut down reinvestment without solving the underlying problem of our dependence on cars.