Which way on Victoria?

Nearly 50,000 cars use it every day, but most people simply take Victoria Avenue for granted. It's where the County government is headquartered and where many of us shop for everything from garden supplies to bagels. Thirty years ago, it was the edge of town. Now half of Ventura's 105,000 residents live east of it.

Some people were disappointed when a 99 Cents Only Store replaced Ralphs (which moved to a new center down the street.) Even more have been alarmed by the prospect of Walmart moving in (although a sizable share of the population are looking forward to the retail giant coming to Ventura.) But few residents worry about the future of the street.

Yet it can't be taken for granted that the offices and stores along Victoria will always be full. The way we shop is changing more rapidly than we realize. It isn't just music stores that are feeling the pinch. According to a recent annual grocery industry study, by 2010, less than half of $1 trillion annual grocery and consumables sales will be in traditional supermarkets.

Think about it. For fifty years, almost all of us have been going to the local supermarket at least once a week -- and supporting the small stores and service businesses next door. But already we buy grocery items at Target, Rite Aid and Trader Joes -- and many drive to Oxnard to Costco and Walmart. With new grocery competitors on the horizon, like Whole Foods and Tesco (a British convenience store chain that is planning on spending half a billion on new West Coast outlets), the standard pattern for buying milk and eggs is fragmenting.

The same is happening with offices. More and more Americans are working from home and global outsourcing is further eroding the market for conventional office space. Tenants are still focused on convenient locations and low rents -- but they are also looking for attractive work environments to retain and attract a young and restless workforce.

If you need a reason to think about Victoria, look no further than Thompson Avenue. Once the thriving coastal route, today new car lots are almost all gone and the tourist motels have become low-income housing. When the real estate market shifts, investment flows away, leaving an obsolete landscape behind.

On Monday, the City Council and Planning Commission will be discussing a draft plan for Victoria's future. Some voices are saying: let's not monkey with success -- the private market can take care of Victoria for the forseeable future. Others are speaking up for the General Plan vision of gradually transforming the area from a traffic-dominated arterial to one that has a greater mix of pedestrian-oriented uses in order to attract high-value, high quality office and retail jobs.

Whatever view prevails, the street will change in the decade ahead. The question is: what role does the community play in guiding that change?

For more background, see:

http://www.cityofventura.net/victoria/